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Pitt’s strength as a passing attack meets an efficient pass defense for the Tigers - and that should be a great battle. I’m wary of picking a Panthers team that might come in too amped for their biggest home game in quite some time - facing a sleeping giant in Clemson that gets to fully embrace the underdog role. While the Clemson roster has taken its hits, there is still plenty of talent to execute that much-anticipated breakthrough and put together the first complete effort of the season against an FBS opponent.Īdd into the prediction formula just how well Pitt has played this year - and really there’s no variety of result Saturday that would surprise me. But Pitt would rank THIRD.- Bill Connelly 20, 2021 (Also based solely on '21 data: Tenn would rank 7th, and Oklahoma would be 18th, soooo.) - Bill Connelly 20, 2021Ĭlemson would still rank 10th with 2021-only data because the defense is so good. I'm always queasy about doing this because people run with it more than I'm comfortable with, but based solely on '21 data, the projection would be Pitt by 8.9. It still has Clemson propped up awfully high (too high, probably) and gives them a 1.5-point edge.- Bill Connelly 19, 2021 Even SP+ founder Bill Connelly would admit that particular ranking is skewed and affecting the pick: 4 overall in the SP+ rankings and that’s the one metric picking Clemson from the group. The metrics we typically track are not as far down the road betting against the Tigers as, but there probably should be some caveats here. SP+ projection: 54% Clemson (Tigers by 1.5)ĮSPN FPI: 63.1% Pittsburgh (Panthers by 1.2 points*) It backs up what we’ve all witnessed:ĬLEMSON PITTSBURGH /IbO6vg4gnD- parker 19, 2021Īs Swinney has pointed out repeatedly this week, his Tigers are in trouble if the offense can’t find some kind of rhythm and put up points. In CFB-Graph’s chart below, you can see all the red marking Clemson’s low offensive numbers through six games. Here’s an overview of how the sides matchup:Įfficiency ranks: Offense | Defense | Special teamsĬU SP+ ranks (No. 23), up against a top-20 unit Clemson defense against EPA/pass (No. Pitt super-senior QB Kenny Pickett has led the way of a top-25 ranked unit in EPA per pass (No. 7 nationally in EPA margin (.151) and net points per drive (1.42). Combined with a prolific offense, they are No. 9) and a top-20 success rate^ allowed (No. You already have an idea of what Clemson’s issues have been since then, but where does the confidence come with Pitt?Īccording to, while the offense gets plenty of praise - their defense carries some of the elite stats with a top-10 mark in expected points added# (EPA No. Less than a year ago, Clemson dominated this same Panthers program in Death Valley, 52-17. One analytics site,, only gives Clemson a 20.2% shot of coming away with a much-needed win for its hopes of a seventh consecutive ACC crown.ĮSPN’s Football Power Index registers one of the Tigers’ lowest chances since its creation with a 36.9% percent shot at victory. In the Vegas odds, Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are an underdog in the regular season for the first time since 2016 (at home by a point to Louisville) and by the most points since 2014 (Florida State, 9.5), as a 3.5-point dog. 23 Pittsburgh Saturday (3:30 p.m./ESPN) is, well.different than we’ve seen in these kinds of games for a while. Pickett (8) has thrown one interception in 205 attempts this season after tallying four of them in one game against the Tigers last year.įrom a statistical standpoint, the outlook for Clemson in its matchup at No.